Water & Climate Change

 

Water Availability

The hydrological system is arguably the most important system on Earth as it controls all life. In many African countries, water is primarily used for agricultural activities such as cropland irrigation and livestock maintenance. You may ask: why is this relevant? Well, many African countries have highly variable and scarce water supplies, which directly impacts their food production and livelihoods. According to Taylor (2004), delivering on the core issue of water availability can increase self-sufficiency and mitigate food scarcity levels. One main reason many African countries have highly variable and scarce water supplies is largely owed to Africa's position across equatorial and subtropical latitudes. Its positionality along the Intertropical Convergence Zone makes it highly susceptible to irregular or low annual rainfall.  Nevertheless, if adequate adaptive capacities are implemented such as effective irrigation systems these areas will suffer less from our unpredictable changing climate. 

                                       

Figure 1: Water availability by country in Africa and expected availability for 2025 (UNEP).

  Climate Change

Globally, the effects of climate change are becoming more and more drastic as global warming is increasing the frequency of droughts and floods and intensifying natural phenomena such as "El Niño". These climatic changes are significantly impacting an African continent that uses 80.2% of its freshwater withdrawals for agricultural productivity. Most African countries are economically dependent on the agricultural industry, therefore, increasing erratic climate conditions such as droughts are massively impacting food yields and economies across African societies. Although physical factors determine our access to resources, it is important to highlight that the lack of harvesting supplies and lack of an efficient supply chain also play a huge role in ensuring food and water availability (Adenle et al. 2017). Even though these factors are interconnected and worsen livelihoods; I intend on focusing this post on drought as its ones of the largest threats to food security in Africa.

A case study: Ethiopia fighting climate change

It would be impossible to cover the many climate changes taking place in the vast African continent, so for this section I have chosen to write about Ethiopia as a case study to show the impacts drought has on crop production.  

According to Berhane & Bezabih (2020), climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity as it influences crop and livestock production, hydrological balances, input supplies and other components of agricultural systems. Ethiopia is often alluded to as an extreme example of a nation suffering from climatic changes, as drought has become a recurrent feature in Ethiopia. Two notable droughts took place in the 1980s and 2015-16. 

Figure 2: Seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia, normal year (AKLDP, 2015)

Figure 2 highlights the irregular rainfall patterns in Ethiopia, which are mainly due to the northern movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).  These irregular rainfall patterns and deficiencies during crop seasons are often to blame for the widespread hunger across Ethiopia.  

Furthermore, the irregularity of rainfall in Ethiopia is common, and so when a natural phenomenon such as El Niño occurs, it drastically exacerbates these climatic conditions. Indeed, El Niño affects biodiversity, natural resources, ecosystem, agriculture, water availability, soil fertility, public health, energy supply and marketing. Therefore, the occurrence of El Niño in 2015 triggered a severe water shortage, increased water borne diseases and the migration and death of livestock, impacting approximately 10 million Ethiopians. El Niño has also been negatively affecting water availability and food security in this region since 1953 and will continue to do so, as crop production is predominantly based on rain-fed conditions.

Conclusion

Although physical factors such as climate change massively impact water availability and food security, it is important to note that this is not the only variable that influences access to resources as it is controlled by a complex web of political, economic, cultural and social factors. For example, the 1980s famine in Ethiopia was aggravated by domestic conflict, which displaced many people and disrupted food aid reliefs. History could easily repeat itself for Ethiopia as it is currently facing a civil war and if this aligns with another drastic climatic event, it could lead to another disaster. Ultimately, many developing African nations such as Ethiopia need to prioritise developing adaptative capacities to climate change to guarantee future water and food security.